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IDF Assessment: Iran Being Pushed Out of Syria, but Hezbollah Threat Intensifying
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by Benjamin Kerstein
An IDF soldier looks into southern Syria from the Israeli side of the border. Photo: IDF via Wikimedia Commons.
Iran is slowly being pushed out of Syria, but the threat to Israel from Hezbollah is intensifying, according to a new IDF assessment.
The Israeli news site N12 reported that the assessment stated that Iran was reducing the number of its troops in Syria and seriously reconsidering its strategy there given the cost in lives and treasure being exacted by continuing Israeli air strikes.
However, the assessment noted that resolving the Syria issue to Israel’s benefit would not come through purely military means, though “there is a trend and this is an opportunity from Israel’s point of view.”
It also concluded that Russia was “here to stay” in Syria and, so far, the Russian presence had not curtailed the IDF’s freedom of action against Iran.
On the other hand, the assessment highlighted increased activity by the terror group Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Hezbollah operatives have been observed touring the border area in civilian disguises, and the Iranian proxy group has bolstered its military infrastructure in border villages, where every third house was now in fact a Hezbollah terror post, the assessment said.
Regarding what would touch off a war with Hezbollah, the IDF sees two possible scenarios: a military confrontation between the US and Iran in the Gulf region, or an Israeli strike on Hezbollah severe enough to force it to respond.
