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by Benjamin Kerstein
A view of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility 250 km (155 miles) south of the Iranian capital Tehran, March 30, 2005. Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi
The IDF’s annual intelligence assessment states that Iran is two years away from a possible nuclear weapon and Hezbollah is still out for revenge against Israel, Israeli news site N12 reported Tuesday.
The assessment stated that Iran is not currently enriching uranium at a level that will allow it to produce a nuclear bomb, but that if it decides to do so, it is two years away from effective weaponization.
The IDF did find that Iran has violated the 2015 nuclear agreement it reached with the United States and several other countries, and from which the US withdrew in 2018. While it is not enriching uranium at the 90% level required for weapons-grade fuel, the deal set a limit of 3.67% — which Iran has already exceeded — to extend the breakout timeline.
In addition, the IDF assessment found that Iran is still intent on entrenching itself in Syria, but is beginning to reexamine its policy. It has reduced the number of its fighters in the war-torn country, likely due to Israel’s campaign of air strikes on Iranian and Iran-affiliated targets.
As for Hezbollah, the Iran-backed terror organization that has significant power in Lebanon, the IDF assessed that the group does not want an all-out war with Israel, and will not initiate one. However, it may engage in limited escalations similar to Hamas’ small-scale attacks from the Gaza Strip.
In particular, Hezbollah wants revenge for one of its terrorists who was killed in Syria in what it believes to have been an Israeli air strike.
While the IDF believes that Israel’s deterrence of Hezbollah is working, the terror group is nonetheless continuing its efforts to develop an arsenal of precision missiles, something Israel has stated it will not tolerate.
