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October 20, 2023 10:33 am

Israel and Gaza: The Myth About Casualty Numbers and Proportionality

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avatar by Daniel Pomerantz

Opinion

Israeli tanks and military vehicles take position near Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, Oct. 14, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Violeta Santos Moura

On October 7, Hamas invaded Israeli communities and perpetrated the largest loss of Jewish life in a single day since the Holocaust: including the murder of 1,400 children, women, men, and the elderly, the rape of women, and the horrific massacre of 40 babies.

In the week since, the Palestinian terror group has launched hundreds of additional attempts to invade Israel by sea, land and air, with the stated purpose of annihilating the Jewish State and murdering Jews.

As Israel defends against the ongoing attacks and launches a military operation to remove Hamas from power, a global campaign of misinformation seeks to portray the Jewish state as a bloodthirsty force intent on revenge, rather than what it actually is: a responsible nation seeking basic safety for its citizens.

Two concepts will feature prominently in the coming public conversation: proportionality and civilian casualties.

Proportionality

Many who use the word do not understand what “proportionality” really means: it does not mean that a country should respond to an attack with a similar attack.

If that were true, Israel should be expected to murder 1,400 Palestinian civilians, behead or burn alive 40 babies, etc.  Clearly, this is not the correct understanding.

In truth, proportionality means that a military action must be proportional to the threat it is intended to address, or in technical language: harm to civilian life or infrastructure must not be excessive in relation to the military objective. (See, for example, Article 51 of the Additional Protocol to the Geneva Convention).

For example, after 9/11, the very existence of Al-Qaeda posed a serious threat to American security, because the terror organization had sworn to cause continued harm to the Western world.

Therefore, America’s military objective had to include the elimination of Al-Qaeda’s existence, or else Americans would never be safe. This strategic goal required a decade of military operations across multiple countries: not proportional to the events of 9/11 (a single day of attacks on three specific targets), but proportional to the threat America faced if Al-Qaeda would be able to carry out its mission statement.

In this case, Hamas is an ISIS-style and Nazi-admiring organization: the terror group idolizes Adolf Hitler, uses Nazi symbols, and includes Nazi ideology in its training as well as its founding charter. Hamas’ goal can be summed up in the words of President Biden, “Hamas does not stand for the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and self-determination. Its stated purpose is the annihilation of the State of Israel and the murder of Jewish people.”

Israel cannot be safe as long as Hamas exists. Much like America’s task after 9/11, destroying Hamas is the proportional response.

What this will require depends entirely on Hamas: if the terror group were to release all hostages and surrender its leadership to arrest, this matter would conclude with no further loss of life. However, Hamas has shown no such intention; it is deeply entrenched in Palestinian civilian infrastructure, and its fighters are both well-trained and well-armed. Therefore, the proportional response of eliminating Hamas will require a significant amount of fighting, with Israeli and Palestinian civilians often caught in between.

Moreover, this week Iran has threatened to attack, and Lebanon has already made aggressive moves. As a response, the United States has sent two aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean, and the UK has sent forces as well. The goal of these forces is to deter any such escalation, but even a multi-front and multi-national war would still be considered “proportional” as long as its purpose is eliminating Hamas and promoting the future safety of the Israeli people.

Numbers games

As part of a propaganda effort, Hamas is already releasing casualty numbers.  These numbers are unreliable in four distinct ways:  the source, propensity for outright lies, the causality, and the use of human shields.

Source: The Gaza Ministry of Health is often cited as the source of Palestinian casualty numbers. This “ministry” is actually an arm of Hamas, which is designated as a terror organization by much of the world including the United States, the European Union, and the UK. Quoting data from Hamas is the functional equivalent of using ISIS as if it were a reliable source. It is not.

Causality: About 20-30% of Hamas’ rockets misfire, causing Palestinian casualties that Hamas misleadingly includes in its total figures. The phenomenon is confirmed by multiple organizations outside of Israel.

An especially tragic example occurred on Tuesday night:  the terror organization Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), fired a rocket barrage at Israel from right next to Gaza’s Al-Ahli Baptist hospital.  At least one rocket hit the hospital, apparently killing civilians.

Lies: Hamas frequently tells outright lies with respect to casualties. For example, after Tuesday’s blast at the Al-Ahli hospital, Hamas immediately released public statements blaming Israel, despite knowing that PIJ was responsible.They also claimed that 500 were killed, and evidence shows the number was far less.

This is not a new phenomenon: in 2018 Hamas set global headlines ablaze, claiming that Israeli forces had killed an eight month old Palestinian baby: Layla Ghandour. It was later discovered that baby Layla had died from an unrelated congenital heart condition, and had been nowhere near Israeli forces at the time. These are just two examples of a common and widespread practice of blatant and intentional misinformation.

Human shields: Hamas systematically integrates its military machine with the Palestinian civilian infrastructure. Command centers can be found in schools and mosques, rocket launchers can be found in or next to private homes (or hospitals, as seen Tuesday night), and the list goes on. Even when Israel issues advance warning of attacks, Hamas frequently acts to prevent civilians from leaving the area, as it is doing right now in Gaza City. Such casualties should appropriately be considered an act of Hamas, and not of Israel or any other party.

Israel is making enormous efforts to protect its civilians while also protecting Palestinian civilians, even under the nearly impossible conditions that Hamas has created over decades. Though Israelis understandably feel a mix of strong emotions, the nation as a whole, and its armed forces, are not seeking revenge, but rather a safer strategic position for Israel and its allies. Such a safer world would benefit not only Israelis, but also prospects for a safe and prosperous Palestinian state.

Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck Research, a nonprofit organization dedicated to bringing clarity to global conversations, and currently focused on the war between Hamas and Israel. You can learn more about RealityCheck’s vital work at: https://realitycheckresearch.org/donation/

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