Israeli military vehicles move near the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in southern Israel, Dec. 31, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Violeta Santos Moura

A new ​​Harvard CAPS-Harris poll shows the vast majority of Americans still support Israel over Hamas, suggesting concerns about the electoral impact of President Joe Biden’s decision to stand with Israel may be overblown.

The poll found that 80 percent of respondents said they support Israel over Hamas in the current war, while only 20 percent support Hamas over Israel. The majority of every sub-group polled supports Israel more than Hamas — including those aged 18-24, where the split is 57% support of Israel and 43% support of Hamas.

At the same time, 57% of young people said they believe Israel is committing genocide and 63% supported an unconditional ceasefire without the release of the hostages, although no other age group had a majority that agreed in either case.

These numbers are released within the context of mounting concern in recent months that young people, Muslim voters, and the progressive wing of the Democratic party may be so upset with Biden over his support of Israel that it will reconsider their support for him in the 2024 election and thus put his chances for re-election in jeopardy. 

US President Joe Biden has fully supported Israel and its military campaign to destroy Hamas and rescue the hostages since Hamas’s October 7th terrorist attack, but has also pressured Israel to take additional humanitarian measures in Gaza to reduce civilian casualties.

These concerns are fueled by Biden’s low approval rating on the issue — as only 39% of voters say that they approve of his handling of the war — along with large-scale anti-Israel protests across the country and pressure from within the administration.

However, that number is primarily driven by Republican opposition to Biden, as only 19% of Republicans say they approve of his handling of the war and 61% of Democrats approve. Additionally, New York Times polling from December found that among those who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war, nearly as many say it is due to being too pro-Palestinian as it is due to be too pro-Israel (16% vs 19%).

This suggests that while there is a minority of the Democratic party that substantially disagrees with Biden’s approach to Israel, it is much smaller than metrics such as issue approval rating let on. At the same time, a small number of votes can be a deciding factor in an election.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll was conducted online between Jan. 17-18 and garnered responses from 2,346 registered voters.